Badgers Ball Ruminations: Oregon Recap
Phil Longo is out as Wisconsin's OC after another high-school level offensive performance in Saturday night's loss to Oregon.
The Wisconsin Badgers lost to the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks on Saturday night by three points in a game that was much closer than everyone thought. However, the 16-13 setback did result in one big win for UW…on Sunday, under 24 hours after the game, head coach Luke Fickell announced that he had fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo. My thoughts on this as a neutral and unbiased journalist?
My enemies are vanquished and I will never die!
Longo, who I don’t know personally and is probably a decent dude, can’t clean out his office in Madison fast enough for my liking. He was the wrong choice as offensive coordinator the moment he signed his contract with UW and, somehow, he was an ever wronger choice with each passing week since.
I am historically anti-numbers and anti-nerds, but sometimes it is important to look at the statistics when evaluating someone’s job performance. Here are Wisconsin’s national offensive ranks (out of 134 FBS teams) in a few important statistical categories this season:
Points per game, 23.9, 97th (in five games this year vs. FBS teams with winning records they are averaging 17.6 ppg)
Yards per game, 363.1, 91st
Yards per play, 5.37, 98th
Rushing yards per game, 169.3, 57th
Rushing yards per carry, 4.54, 62nd
Passing yards per game, 193.8, 102nd
Passing yards per attempt, 6.4, 122nd
Passer rating, 115.78, 121st
Completion percentage, 57.1, 113th
Turnovers, 16, 92nd
3rd down conversions, 37.7, 86th
4th down conversions, 64.7, 28th (heyyyy, not bad!)
Red zone scoring rate, 80.56, 99th
Red zone TD rate, 61.11, 73rd
Penalty yards per game, 33.2 6th
Penalties per game, 4.9, 21st
Overall EPA (expected points added), 0.015, 58th
Rushing EPA, 0.022, 51st
Passing EPA, -0.003, 67th
So, outside of limiting penalties (although I’d argue that many of the penalties were pre-snap and procedural and therefore on the coaching staff) and converting a solid number of fourth downs, the Wisconsin Badgers offense under Phil Longo this year could easily be described as one of the worst of any P4 team. Now, this isn’t me suggesting that UW should return to the late 90s and run the ball three times up the middle and hope that one of them breaks out into an explosive play in the fourth quarter, quite the contrary in fact.
The Badgers have needed an upgraded, modern offense for years…but they need it to be rooted in things that Wisconsin does best. Longo’s Air Raid offense was never going to work in Madison for myriad reasons, not the least of which were “attracting the appropriate level of talent” and “being on the same page offensively as the head coach.”
I have no “inside sources” but it was pretty clear, even to outside observers, that Longo and Fickell never saw eye to eye on how Wisconsin’s offense should be run. That’s a recipe for disaster and, quite frankly, “disaster” would be a kind way to describe UW’s offense for the last two years.
Fickell gets one (1) chance to right this wrong and if his new offensive coordinator is also a bust then he (and potentially AD Chris McIntosh) will be looking for new jobs. Magical one-year turnarounds don’t happen very often (shout-out this year’s Indiana Hoosiers) but with the transfer portal the Badgers should be able to drastically reshape their roster to fit their (new) offensive needs. I honestly just want to see the semblance of a plan on offense next year, it doesn’t have to be Marcus Mariota’s Oregon or Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech…just an offense that is building towards something and not an incoherent jumbling of ideas, none of which were being committed to fully.
It’s a beautiful day, friends. Anything is possible if you just hate enough, remember that. Oh yeah, the game! Guess we should talk about that too.
Good Things
Mike Tressel’s defensive scheme and execution were top-notch against the Ducks. He hasn’t been great all year but, unlike Longo, he has been flexible and has made adjustments. His game plan that shutdown the prolific Oregon offense is going to be studied by their opponents for the rest of the season. Coming into the game, the Ducks were averaging a hair under 36 points per game and Tressel’s unit held them to 16.
Heisman Trophy candidate Dillon Gabriel came into the game with 22 TDs and five interceptions. He left Camp Randall Stadium with 22 TDs and six interceptions. He averaged 284.8 yards passing before facing UW’s defense and only managed 218 yards through the air on Saturday night.
Tressel’s defense disguised their coverages well, got pressure on the QB, and played bend but don’t break defense that kept the Ducks out of the endzone for every possession except one. It was an inspiring and impressive performance and it deserved a better result than “heartbreaking loss to undefeated team.”True freshman CB Xavier Lucas made, what I think, was the MOST impressive play on the night. After the Ducks tied the game at 13 in the fourth quarter, Wisconsin went three-and-out on their response drive, giving Oregon the ball back with the chance to score again and take the lead. After gaining a first down and getting to the Wisconsin 43-yard line, the Ducks offense faced a 3rd and 10.
Having just seen Gabriel escape pressure and convert a 4th and 9 on the last drive I was quite nervous about another long, back-breaking conversion. With Gabriel lined up in the shotgun, Tressel sent Lucas on a delayed corner blitz and Lucas had a free run at the veteran QB. However, Lucas knew that Gabriel is a threat to run and instead of flying at the QB with wreckless abandon, Lucas stopped short and broke down with choppy steps to contain Gabriel.
The Oregon signal caller tried to escape but Lucas kept him penned in until help arrived and then, 15-yards behind the line of scrimmage, he and teammate Curt Neal each recorded half a sack and forced the Ducks to punt it away. This was a play that players many years his senior wouldn’t have made correctly and Lucas made it look easy. What a promising talent he is.LB Christian Alliegro got the start and looks the part of a tackling machine.
CB Nyzier Fourqueran showed good awareness in picking off Gabriel’s pass into he red-zone, directly after being burned by the Ducks to get in the red-zone.
QB Braedyn Locke threw a beautiful ball to WR Vinny Anthony for a 43-yard gain.
After looking lost for much of the first quarter, the UW offensive line picked up their play and had a solid final three quarters of the game.
Longo’s play-call to get WR Will Pauling’s touchdown was really good. To be fair to Longo, he had a couple of other good playcalls that were short-circuited by piss-poor execution.
K Nathaniel Vakos made both of his field goal attempts as he continues his season-long resurgence.
Pass rusher John Pius looked dangerous on Saturday night and recorded a sack. I also liked how DL Ben Barten played.
RB Tawee Walker did not have a negative run on the night and averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
The fans were awesome all game and I approve of them booing the offense off the field after their third straight three-and-out to start the game.
Bad Things
To be clear, no game is ever one player’s fault one way or the other but…QB Braedyn Locke did not cover himself in glory against the Ducks on Saturday. He completed under half of his 28 attempts, didn’t crack the century mark through the air, was sacked twice, and threw a game-sealing interception, the seventh straight game he’s started in which he has thrown at least one pick.
He continued to struggle with tunnel vision, locking in on one route and throwing it that way regardless of how many defenders were in the way, and getting the ball past the outstretched arms of defensive linemen. He had a handful of severely overthrown passes towards open receivers, one of which, a pass that sailed over Walker’s head out of the backfield in the red zone, would have resulted in an easy six points instead of the eventual field goal UW settled for.
If Wisconsin had trotted out a replacement level QB they most likely win this game, probably by double-digits. I’d argue they probably would’ve won the USC game too. The Iowa game was a complete war crime of an offensive effort and it wouldn’t have mattered if Patrick Mahomes was Wisconsin’s QB. The Penn State game still would’ve been a loss too because UW was lucky to be leading that game at halftime.
Now, to be fair to Locke, he has suffered from multiple receivers dropping catchable passes this year and back-breaking penalties that have erased a few big plays. This is most likely a scenario where both sides agree a change of scenery is the best option at the end of the year. Locke never hid from tough questions and didn’t throw his teammates under the bus and I hope he finds success playing QB next year whether it is in Madison or not.The offensive line was brutal in the first quarter and, combined with Locke’s inaccuracy, saw the team “gain” -8 yards on nine plays over their first three drives. On the first play of UW’s fourth drive, Walker ran up the middle for four yards and the crowd gave a loud, sarcastic cheer that warmed the cockles of my cold, dead, Philadelphian heart.
Wisconsin, as noted earlier, has been quite good at avoiding massive amounts of penalties this season, however, when they do get penalized it is almost always at a crucial juncture of the game. Now, we can debate the “chop block” penalty with Oregon fans (it was very much NOT a chop block and an awful, game-deciding call) until we’re blue in the face, but there were other miscues that cost Wisconsin yards/points.
WR Bryson Green had such an egregious holding call on a long Tawee Walker run that I screamed at the TV “LET HIM GO” and Green held on to his man for at least another 10 yards. That pushed UW out of the red-zone and, as noted on the broadcast, probably should’ve pushed them back further since it was supposed to be enforced from where the hold started lmao. Wisconsin’s momentum was stalled and they settled for a field goal on that drive.
It was called on OT Jack Nelson, but there were multiple offenders on the ineligible player down field on Locke’s insane, left-handed TD throw that didn’t end up counting. It’s tough to be too upset about this one as the offensive linemen had no idea what was happening behind them on the busted play.
Finally, with 2:36 left in the game and the Badgers down three the Wisconsin offense took the field looking to start a season-altering drive after a touchback. Keep in mind that the UW offense had been on the sideline for over four minutes of game time at this point and, presumably, discussed what play they were going to run once they got the ball back to, again presumably, put Oregon on the back foot.
Instead…they got a fucking delay of game penalty. On the first play of the drive. And it wasn’t the first time this happened this year. I just…I don’t know, dude. That’s so awful it is making me physically ill remembering it. Despite gaining six yards on first down, the Badgers still faced 3rd (and 4th) and long on this drive before punting it back to the Ducks 33 seconds later.I’m sure there were some things on the defensive side of the ball that Tressel wasn’t happy with, but none of them were glaring to an average d-bag watching from the couch.
There are two guaranteed games left in Wisconsin’s season and both of them are for rivalry trophies.
Saturday, Nov. 23, at Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. CT, BTN
Friday, Nov. 29, vs. Minnesota, 11:00 a.m. CT, CBS
Neither of those teams are particularly good, but Wisconsin is in no way above them this year. The Huskers, according to this hilarious stat provided by CBS after they lost to USC, “[have] now lost its last nine games with bowl eligibility on the line, dating back to 2016 at Indiana. Eight of those losses have come within the last two seasons.”
Wisconsin has beaten Nebraska 10 straight times with Bret Bielema, Gary Andersen, Paul Chryst, Jim Leonhard, and Luke Fickell all picking up wins over the Huskers. The Badgers are their final home opponent (they end the season at Iowa) and they will assuredly pull out all of the steps to try and get their sixth win for the first time since the 2016 season.
We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon what is more powerful: "the incredible losing stench of Nebraska since they fired Bo Pelini” or “The Curse of Phil Longo.” Either way I’m sure it will be an unappealing rock fight that even fans of the two teams in the game will hate. The Big Ten West will never die!
It’s worth noting, while I make fun of Nebraska, that the Badgers aren’t bowl eligible yet this year either. UW has made a bowl in each of the past 22 seasons, the third longest streak in FBS, but are staring down the barrel of that ending unless they get a win over the Huskers or Gophers.
Minnesota is already bowl eligible but they will be looking to take Paul Bunyan’s Axe home with them after losing it last fall at TCF Bank (Huntington Bank? Who cares?) Stadium. After UW’s 14-game winning streak in this series ended in 2018 the two archrivals have split the last six meetings with team quality and game location being basically meaningless.
As a resident of Minnesota there are few things in my life that I want to happen less than the Gophers to win back the Axe while also denying Wisconsin bowl eligibility so, you know, get your shit together, Luke Fickell.
I hope Braedyn Locke comes back next year and thrives under a new OC - redemption for Locke and continuity for UW sports. Remember when you could root for players as they developed year over year?