NCAA Men's Tournament Review: Greg Gard vs. Expectations
A nearly decade-long battle rages on with no satisfying ending in sight.
The Badgers lost to BYU by two points in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday night, but you already knew that. Wisconsin scored 89 points in a postseason game and didn’t win! That’s one of the most wild statistics I’ve come across in my lifetime of watching Badgers basketball!! I’m sure Dick Bennett turned off his TV in disgust while watching this one.
Before the game, just about every smart basketball person (and me!) noted that whoever shot better from three was most likely to win and, lo and behold, BYU shot 46% from deep while UW shot 34%. It’s worth noting that both teams made a dozen three-pointers, the Cougars just made theirs at a far more efficient clip. There were, however, a plethora of other reasons why the Badgers fell short of the Tournament’s second weekend, a place they haven’t been since 2017.
For one, Wisconsin couldn’t guard a traffic cone in the first half (or for a vast majority of the second half) and BYU’s lethal offense took full advantage. Cougars’ point guard Egor Demin sliced and diced Wisconsin’s “defense” for eight assists and backup Dallin Hall added six helpers of his own. BYU ended up with 21 dimes on 32 made field goals and had Wisconsin scrambling on the defensive end of the court for much of the game.
In my preview of this game, I said: “I will be interested to see how well the Badgers are boxing out and grabbing defensive rebounds in the first few minutes of the game, because that could be an early indicator on who will have the advantage.” It took 16 seconds for BYU to collect their first offensive rebound, resulting in two points, and I swear to you I muttered “this ain’t good” after it happened.
UW got out-worked on the glass, especially in the first half. BYU pulled down 13 offensive rebounds, including nine in the first half, and out-rebounded the Badgers by nine, 41-32. The Cougars ended up attempting two more field goals than the Badgers and in a two-point game those extra shots proved extremely valuable.
Wisconsin, the best free throw shooting team in the country, missed a number of opportunities at the charity stripe on Saturday. While they made more free throws than BYU (23-15), they also missed way more (six to one) than the Cougars did. John Blackwell and Carter Gilmore each missed the front end of a one-and-one, Jack Janicki missed both of his free throw attempts, and John Tonje (sixth best FT% in the nation) missed an uncharacteristic two free throws in the first half.
Speaking of free throws, just after four minutes had passed in the second half the Wisconsin bench (still not sure who specifically) earned a technical foul. BYU’s Richie Saunders made both technical free throws and then made a layup on the ensuing offensive possession, pushing the Cougars lead from four to eight.
BYU made it difficult for teams to score at the rim all season and, despite Tonje’s relentless attacks, the Badgers fared no differently than the rest of BYU’s opponents. UW was 9-of-17 on layups and scored 28 points in the paint. On the other hand, BYU was 13-of-19 on layups and scored 38 points in the paint. Large advantage to the Cougars.
Wisconsin’s bench scored three points all game, UW couldn’t play Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter at the same time, Kamari McGee was basically unplayable due to his size, Xavier Amos’ depth finder was off and he couldn’t duplicate his first round performance, and BYU received valuable contributions from 10 different players.
All of that to say, Wisconsin’s season is over before everyone wanted it to be. Since that heartbreaking, buzzer-beating loss to Florida in the 2017 Sweet 16, UW’s season has ended in the following disappointing fashions:
2018; Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals loss to 1-seed Michigan State (gross); missed NCAAT
2019; NCAAT first round loss to 12-seed Oregon
2020; won national championship (simulated by ESPN’s computers due to the actual tournament being canceled by COVID-19)
2021; NCAAT second round loss to 1-seed Baylor (limited fans due to ongoing pandemic)
2022; NCAAT second round loss to 11-seed Iowa State (in Milwaukee)
2023; NIT semifinals loss to North Texas (didn’t score for the final 9:08 of the game and lost by two); missed NCAAT
2024; NCAAT first round loss to 12-seed James Madison
2025; NCAAT second round loss to 6-seed BYU
That’s two seasons where they missed the tournament completely, one pandemic-canceled tournament (that they would’ve made FWIW), a baffling and embarrassing NIT semifinal loss, and five NCAA Tournament losses in which they were the favorite in four. Not exactly covering themselves in glory come March are the Badgers.
According to Torvik’s site, Wisconsin has underperformed their computer expectations in each of the last five tournaments and their seed expectations in four of the past five. In Greg Gard’s first two tourney runs (both to the Sweet 16), however, Wisconsin overperformed in both of the aforementioned metrics, beating 1-seed Villanova and 2-seed Xavier along the way.
You’ll see some arguments from people on the internet that Gard should be fired. They’ll say he only did well in the tourney with “Bo's players,” or he can’t recruit well enough to get UW back to the Final Four, or that his style of play is boring/unattractive.
While it certainly isn’t a good look for a team like Wisconsin to go eight years (and counting) without an appearance in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, firing a coach based on that is short-sighted and, quite frankly, stupid. The nature of a single-elimination tournament means that the best teams rarely do “as well” as they’re supposed to do and the Badgers are no exception.
Gard has also answered his critics (of which I have often been a vocal one) with a number of changes to his coaching style both on and off the court. As much as he may not like it, Gard understands that the landscape of college hoops underwent a massive shift over the past few years with the transfer portal and NIL and he has adapted to the new normal. He hasn’t publicly complained about either thing like many coaches have and he has started to install the infrastructure for Wisconsin to be competitive in that realm.
He has done all of this without sacrificing the culture he and Bo Ryan have built in Madison over the past 23 odd years. Wisconsin still recruits high school kids hard and doesn’t bullshit them when it comes to promises about playing time or NIL money. Gard and staff aren’t the quickest to nab portal entrants, but every addition they make is deliberate and has been properly vetted to see if the new player will fit in.
Kamari McGee, Max Klesmit, Chris Vogt, John Tonje…these are all guys from the portal that you would be forgiven if you assumed they were born in the Kohl Center with cheese curds and a brandy old fashioned in hand. Have there been bumps in the road? Sure! But I’d argue that Gard has considerably more hits than misses in this arena.
Wisconsin’s offense has somewhat rapidly gone through major changes in the past two seasons. After the disappointing 2023 campaign, which saw a NUMBER of truly dreadful offensive showings, Gard brought UW legend Kirk Penney on board as a “special assistant to the head coach,” but could probably more succinctly be said as “offensive coordinator.”
The New Zealand native, and two-time Olympian, played a little in the NBA but then spent a decade playing in leagues all around the world (Spain, Australia, Lithuania, Germany, Turkey, Israel), picking up valuable knowledge along the way that could help him if he wanted to get into coaching. Well! That sure worked out for Wisconsin!
UW’s recruiting had always been hampered a bit by their reputation as a “slow offense” and their inability to put players in the NBA, but the offense has changed and Johnny Davis was an NBA Lottery pick a few years ago. Hell, Tonje probably won’t get drafted but he could definitely make a G League team and work his way to the big show. Gard and his staff have a preternatural ability to recognize talent before just about anyone else in the country and it has helped them close on players (like John Blackwell for instance) before other schools come sniffing around.
If the Badgers are able to invest some more in their NIL funds and revenue sharing comes to pass (so the school can start paying players directly), I think fans will be impressed by what Gard and co. can do when they aren’t bargain hunting in the portal/on the high school recruiting trail.
It is rare to see a head coach at a high major level take criticism so well and then swiftly implement changes that address the criticisms. Gard has proven time and time again that he can and will adapt so the Badgers are in the best position to succeed with him at the helm. He acknowledged as much during media availability in Denver last week:
“But yeah, it’s definitely has changed. You become more of a CEO than you do a coach. I probably do spend less time on out of bounds plays than I used to 10 years ago. But, [you] have to evolve and you have to embrace the change. And I think we’ve done a really good job of staying in our own way, staying on the cutting edge.”
Wisconsin fans having high expectations for the men’s basketball team is a good thing, and I know Gard understands that, but a season can’t be judged on NCAA Tournament results alone. UW was picked to finish 12th in the Big Ten this year and spent much of the second half of the season around the 12th best team in the nation. They’ve made the Big Ten Tournament final in the last two seasons. They won the conference in 2020 and 2022. The only two teams in the Big Ten that have been consistently better than the Badgers under Gard are Michigan State and Purdue.
There isn’t a constant threat of Gard leaving for a different job in the off-season and there are rarely off-the-court problems with the men’s program. That’s stability that 97% of the teams in the country would most likely trade for at the drop of a hat.
Yes, Greg Gard hasn’t made the Sweet 16 with a team solely made up of his recruits…but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Bo Ryan never made a Final Four…until he did. Wisconsin volleyball couldn’t ever win a national title…until they did. UW women’s hockey couldn’t win a national title thanks to a game-tying penalty shot goal with 18 seconds left in the third period and then an OT winner by the same player…until they did, uh, yesterday.
Greg Gard has earned the right to be the head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team until he doesn’t want to be anymore. Everyone either needs to get on board with that or get out of the way.
Agree. Gard has kept the culture while making much-needed changes to the style of play. Bennett and Bo didn't have to deal with the current version of the portal and NIL. Staff has been added to help with that. I am cautiously optimistic going forward. Recruiting will need to make some strides. UW ranks 11th in the B1G for this year's recruits and 50th in the country. I still hope that, in my lifetime, I see a big who plays like one...which means facing the basket and mixing it up in the paint. They need to wean themselves off the Minneapolis burbs and Dakotas.
Agree!