WBB: dominant Serah Williams performance leads Badgers to comeback, double OT win
Clutch plays from Natalie Leuzinger and timely defensive stops in the second half helped the Badgers to a huge road win over Butler.
The Wisconsin Badgers women’s basketball team went in to Finkle Fieldhouse on Wednesday night and, after 10 minutes of extra basketball, left with a huge non-conference road win over the Butler Bulldogs. Facing a nine-point halftime deficit, UW roared out of the locker room in the third quarter to start their comeback bid.
After two overtime periods, the Badgers were triumphant and notched their ninth win of the season.
Here is my full recap and analysis:
Final Score (2OT)
Wisconsin Badgers (9-2 overall, 1-0 Big Ten): 71
Butler Bulldogs (9-3 overall, 0-0 Big East): 64
Four Factors
eFG%: 45.0
Turnover%: 18.8
Off. Rebound%: 38.9
FTA/FGA: 46.7
Key Stats
FG%: 43.3 (26-of-60)
Opp. FG%: 34.8 (23-of-66)
3P%: 18.2 (2-of-11)
Opp. 3P%: 25.9 (7-of-27)
FT%: 60.7 (17-of-28)
Opp. FT%: 52.4 (11-of-21)
Points Per Possession: 1.029
Opponent Points Per Possession: 0.865
Rebounds: 39 (14 offensive)
Opponent Rebounds: 42 (20 offensive)
Turnovers: 13
Forced Turnovers: 19
Team Leaders
Carter McCray: 13 points (4-of-6 FG), three rebounds (two offensive), two steals, even
Serah Williams: career-high 36 points (13-of-26 FG), 14 rebounds (six offensive), three assists, three blocks, two steals, +5
Natalie Leuzinger: 10 points (3-of-8 FG, 2-of-5 3P), six rebounds (two offensive), one assist, two steals, +4
Halle Douglass: six points (3-of-5 FG, 0-of-1 3P), five rebounds (three offensive), four assists, one steal, +14
Butler Team Leaders
Sydney James: 13 points (4-of-11 FG, 1-of-1 3P), eight rebounds (four offensive), two assists, one steal, -5
Riley Makalusky: 13 points (5-of-15 FG, 3-of-10 3P), six rebounds (three offensive), one assist, two steals, -14
Caroline Strande: four points (1-of-5 FG, 0-of-1 3P), four rebounds (one offensive), two assists, +8 (Butler’s leading scorer landed awkwardly on her ankle at the end of the second quarter and didn’t play the rest of the game)
Three-ish Thoughts
Any discussion about this game has to begin with Serah Williams. The star post player was transcendent on offense, scoring a career-high 36 points (5th most in a game in UW history) on 13-of-26 from the field. In a game where just about everyone else, on either team, struggled from the free throw line, Williams was 10-of-12 on freebies. She pulled down 14 rebounds, six on the offensive end which usually immediately led to a layup, dished out three assists, and had five stocks (steals+blocks) to pace UW on that end. It was her seventh double-double in 11 games this season.
The Badgers opened the second half by continuously feeding Williams in the post and there was, quite literally, nothing the Bulldogs could do to stop her. She went around, over, and through single and double coverage on her way to layup after layup. On the rare occurrence she was stymied by Butler’s defense she was able to find open cutters for layups. Yes, she did have six turnovers…but she also had an insane (career high) 49.9% usage rate which means every other trip down the court Williams was the one shooting, assisting, or attempting free throws. Also, as seen in the Instagram above, it was her mom’s birthday!
Williams was coolly efficient all night and appears ready to do battle with the nonstop stream of talented bigs that the Big Ten contains. She put the team on her back in the second half and willed them back into the game. The Badgers have had a decent non-conference schedule, but they hadn’t secured a win that they could really hang their hat on come postseason time. Winning at Butler, a solid Big East team, is that win. I can’t say enough about how good she was on Wednesday.At a couple of points in the first half I thought that Butler was going to run away from Wisconsin and make the second half a formality. The two main reasons for that were: Butler killing UW on the offensive glass and Butler’s massive advantage in three-point rate.
While it certainly helped that the Bulldogs went 7-of-15 (46.7%) from deep in the first two quarters, but them attempting 13 more threes than Wisconsin did is, almost always, a winning recipe for the higher-volume shooting team. It was a concerning shot diet (from my viewpoint) on both ends of the court for Wisconsin, but I don’t think the Badgers saw it that way.Now, Butler is a pretty good three-point shooting team…but they are NOT that good. As any good statistician will tell you, things like that usually ::points to the studio audience to say it along with me:: REGRESS TO THE MEAN! The Bulldogs three-point regression was as brutal as their first half shooting was scorching hot. In the second half and two overtimes Butler shot 0-of-12 from beyond the arc. Yikes!
Wisconsin struggled to keep Butler off the offensive glass all game (44.4% OReb rate for Butler), but the Bulldogs only hurt the Badgers with second chance points in the first half. With players like Williams and Carter McCray UW shouldn’t struggle like this too often on the glass, but rebounding is a team effort and can’t just rely on the two post players.I want to talk a little bit more about Wisconsin’s defense in this game. I…just don’t think it was THAT good. The numbers look really nice, and they certainly played better defense in the second half/OTs than the first half, but I don’t think it was because UW imposed their defensive will on the Bulldogs.
Throughout the game, UW was switching on screens but defenders kept getting lost and Butler players found themselves wide open regularly. The Badgers switched to a zone later in the second quarter and…it didn’t really work as Butler still got open looks, they just didn’t make them (all FGA, not just 3PA) as frequently.
I really wish I had access to ShotQuality data for this game but, sadly, their price of any amount of American currency is outside the budget of this free newsletter. As mentioned, UW played much better defense in the third quarter, but Butler STILL got good looks. They just regressed to the mean hard.
A team like Wisconsin that has a fairly veteran rotation shouldn’t be struggling with communication on defense as often as they seem to. With some time off for finals before their next game, hopefully they work on this in practice.As the fourth quarter clock ticked towards two minutes remaining, the Badgers found themselves down three. Carter McCray attempts a turnaround jumper that doesn’t go down but then, out of nowhere, Halle Douglass swoops in for the offensive board. She swings it to Natalie Leuzinger and, with 1:58 to go in regulation, she makes Wisconsin’s first three-pointer of the game to tie things up.
After Williams tied the game at 55, Butler had the ball with 17 seconds left and a chance to win the game. As the clock got dangerously close to zero, Butler guard Ari Wiggins drove to the basket but was met by a stationary Leuzinger who, with 1.1 to go, took a charge to give the Badgers a chance to win in regulation!
Obviously, UW did not win in regulation, but that just gave Leuzinger more chances to make winning plays. After a 4-4 draw in the first OT, the second overtime started off slowly too. With 3:07 to go, however, Leuzinger took ANOTHER charge and 15 seconds later she hit her, and Wisconsin’s, second three of the game to push UW’s lead to five. For good measure she made the final two free throws of the game, making the final margin seven points.
Serah Williams had an all-time performance in this game, but Wisconsin doesn’t win, or even make it to overtime, without Leuzinger.QUICK THOUGHTS: Lily Krahn makes bad passes in the paint and it results in turnovers, she looks like she makes up her mind that she’s passing before even seeing what the defense gives her; Butler’s leading scorer, Caroline Strande, left the game late in the second quarter after landing on a UW player’s foot on a jumper, she didn’t return and was seen on the bench with a big ice pack on her ankle; Carter McCray, who isn’t known for her free throw shooting, made a pair of clutch freebies to start double OT after scoring all four of UW’s points in the first OT; I’d have to imagine both teams will be practicing their free throws after this one: UW missed 11 and Butler missed 10; hopefully Tess Myers (0-of-5 FG, 0-of-4 3P) finds her shot during the week off; I think D’Yanis Jimenez just needs to see a shot go in to break out of her slump: she missed all four of her free throws (three of them spun around the rim) and an open layup
Final Thought
At halftime of this game I messaged by Wisconsin WBB group chat that the Badgers were “lucky” to only be down nine and should consider it a win that they were that close. Going back through the game and that was certainly the correct take. Over the final 90 seconds of the first half, Wisconsin outscored Butler 6-3 and, barely, turned a double-digit deficit into a single-digit one. I’m obviously not in the locker room but, I’d guess that being down nine points instead of 11 makes a big difference mentally for a team.
Marisa Moseley has to be given a lot of credit too because whatever she said at halftime clearly resonated with the team. The Badgers never looked down on themselves and simply started chipping away at Butler’s lead by feeding Serah Williams the ball. If you re-watch the third quarter you’ll see the Wisconsin bench standing and cheering on every UW possession and that just shows the team is locked in AND bought in.
Butler is only three seasons removed from winning one (1) game, so they aren’t some national powerhouse, but they are an improving team that beat Indiana by 10 points earlier this season. Given that it was a true road game it also charts out to Wisconsin’s best win of the season via Torvik’s WAB (wins above bubble) which will look nice on their resume come March if they are in contention for a postseason spot.
Awesome win for a group that is rapidly resetting expectations for how this team is perceived nationally.
Next Game: Friday, Dec. 20; vs. Albany Great Danes; 11:00 a.m. CT; B1G+; Kohl Center