WBB: halfway through the B1G season update
How are my preseason predictions looking as we enter the back half of conference play?
This is as good a time as any to take a look back at my preseason predictions for the Big Ten and see how they’re aging as we enter the second half of conference play. Let’s see how smart I was a few months ago!
Predicted Big Ten teams in NCAA Tournament: Southern Cal, UCLA, Ohio State, Nebraska, Illinois, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota (bubble)
Current Bracketology projections (1/31/25) from ESPN:
1-seed: UCLA, Southern Cal
3-seed: Ohio State
4-seed: Maryland
5-seed: Michigan State
8-seed: Oregon
9-seed: Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska
10-seed: Illinois, Minnesota
11-seed: Iowa, Washington (both Last Four In)
Current Bracketology projections (1/31/25) from Mark Schindler at The Athletic:
1-seed: UCLA, Southern Cal
3-seed: Ohio State
4-seed: Maryland
5-seed: Michigan State
7-seed: Oregon, Illinois
8-seed: Nebraska
9-seed: Michigan
10-seed: Minnesota, Indiana
My guess of nine (maybe 10) Big Ten teams making the NCAA Tournament seems like a bit of an undershot. ESPN has 13 (!!!) B1G teams in the bracket while The Athletic has 11. To be fair, two of ESPN’s 13 selections are among the “Last Four In” so they are on shaky ground at best to make the Big Dance.
I severely underrated Michigan, Oregon, and Washington heading into the season while I probably overrated Nebraska, Illinois, and Iowa.
Predicted Big Ten Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Current Big Ten Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
I am sticking with my preseason prediction, but UCLA’s Lauren Betts is millimeters behind Watkins in this race. Right now I’m giving Watkins the slight edge because she plays way more minutes, but some of that isn’t Betts’ fault as her Bruins have been blowing teams out all season. I’ll save the statistical analysis for the end of the year, but by any metric Watkins and Betts are the top two players in the Big Ten this year.
This is a fascinating race and I can’t wait to see who ends up winning the award. Fairly or not, this may be decided based on who plays better on Feb. 13 and Mar. 1 when USC and UCLA face off.
Predicted First Team All-Big Ten:
Kendall Bostic, Illinois
Lucy Olsen, Iowa
Shyanne Sellers, Maryland
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Mara Braun, Minnesota
Cotie McMahon, Ohio State
Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Current First Team All-Big Ten:
Kendall Bostic, Illinois
Kaylene Smikle, Maryland
Olivia Olson, Michigan
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Kiki Rice, UCLA
Sayvia Sellers, Washington
Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Sadly, Shyanne Sellers and Mara Braun have both gotten hurt this year and won’t play enough to be eligible for any postseason honors. I also probably could’ve included more than two players from UCLA and Southern Cal on the First Team because, well, those two teams are really good.
I’m not going to do my Second Team projections, but after a cursory glance at The Numbers, I think both Lucy Olsen and Cotie McMahon would land on it if the season ended today.
Predicted Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year: Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Current Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
I tried everything in my power to not pick Watkins for this award too, but she leads the Big Ten (among qualified players) in defensive win shares (1.8) and D-PRPG (6.3, this is Torvik’s all-encompassing defensive player ratings), she is third in defensive rating (64.5), and she is fourth in the B1G in defensive box plus/minus (6.8). Her steal rate is 21st best in the B1G, her block rate is ninth, and she is even 31st in the conference in defensive rebounding rate as a nominal “guard.” She is good at basketball.
Predicted Big Ten All-Defensive Team:
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Taylor Thierry, Ohio State
Elisa Mevius, Oregon
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Dalayah Daniels, Washington
Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Current Big Ten All-Defensive Team:
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Taylor Thierry, Ohio State
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Rayah Marshall, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Also considered: Kendall Bostic (Illinois), Angela Dugalic (UCLA), Jocelyn Tate (Michigan State), Destiny Adams (Rutgers), Kennedy Smith (Southern Cal), Serah Williams (Wisconsin)
Predicted Big Ten Coach of the Year: Amy Williams, Nebraska
Current Big Ten Coach of the Year: ummm, I don’t know
I think any of Williams, Maryland’s Brenda Frese, Michigan State’s Robyn Fralick, Oregon’s Kelly Graves, Minnesota’s Dawn Plitzuweit, or UCLA’s Cori Close could win it. A lot really depends on how the rest of the season shakes out, which I understand is a lame dodging of this award, but I also don’t care!
Predicted Top Transfer: Lucy Olsen, Iowa
Current Top Transfer: Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal; Kaylene Smikle, Maryland
Two intra-conference transfers have been the most impactful players at their new schools which is…kinda weird. Iriafen has slotted into USC’s front court beautifully and is an excellent compliment to JuJu Watkins’ all-around excellence. Smikle has helped the Terps exceed preseason expectations and will be counted on as one of Maryland’s top offensive options the rest of the way since Shyanne Sellers is out for the year.
Predicted Big Ten Freshman of the Year: Syla Swords, Michigan
Current Big Ten Freshman of the Year: Olivia Olson, Michigan
What a recruiting class for Kim Barnes Arico! The Wolverines have two of the best freshmen in the conference (and nation tbqh) and could ride their coattails to a surprise NCAA Tournament bid. Olson edges out her teammate for this honor due to slightly better efficiency, scoring, and defense. Her dropping 30 points on Wisconsin’s head earlier this week (in a LOSS, mind you) may also be clouding my judgement here.
Predicted Big Ten All-Freshman Team:
Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State
Syla Swords, Michigan
Britt Prince, Nebraska
Kiyomi McMiller, Rutgers
Devin Coppinger, Washington
Current Big Ten All-Freshman Team:
Olivia Olson, Michigan
Syla Swords, Michigan
Tori McKinney, Minnesota
Britt Prince, Nebraska
Kiyomi McMiller, Rutgers
Also considered: Jaloni Cambridge (Ohio State), Avery Howell (Southern Cal), Kennedy Smith (Southern Cal), Kayleigh Heckel (Southern Cal), Elina Aarnisalo (UCLA)
By the end of the year I can pretty easily see Cambridge taking McMiller’s spot on this team. McKinney has been an absolute revelation for the Gophers since Mara Braun went down with her injury.