WBB: end of the Big Ten regular season update
It is March! Which means it's time to look back at how silly we were back in October when we made predictions as wide-eyed, naive children.
An exciting final day of Big Ten Women’s Basketball saw Michigan earn a comeback win at Illinois, Maryland and Ohio State wage an instant classic overtime war, and Rutgers outlast Penn State for the season sweep of their East Coast rivals. When all the results were finally tabulated, the Southern Cal Trojans stood alone as Big Ten Regular Season Champions and top-seed in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.
Way back before the season started I went out on a limb and predicted USC, led by superstars JuJu Watkins, Kiki Iriafen, and a host of 5-star freshmen, would win the conference. What other genius calls did I make? Let’s find out together, friend, while also making my end of the year award selections!
WBB: halfway through the B1G season update
This is as good a time as any to take a look back at my preseason predictions for the Big Ten and see how they’re aging as we enter the second half of conference play. Let’s see how smart I was a few…
First things first: the final conference standings.
Southern Cal Trojans
UCLA Bruins
Maryland Terrapins
Ohio State Buckeyes
Illinois Fighting Illini
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks
Washington Huskies
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Wisconsin Badgers
Purdue Boilermakers
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Northwestern Wildcats
Penn State Nittany Lions
The top-four teams will receive a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament and the bottom-three teams will miss out on the tournament all together. Here is how I saw the conference before the season started with difference in actual ranking in parentheses.
Southern Cal Trojans (nailed it)
UCLA Bruins (nailed it)
Ohio State Buckeyes (-1)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6)
Illinois Fighting Illini (nailed it)
Maryland Terrapins (+3)
Indiana Hoosiers (-1)
Michigan State Spartans (+1)
Iowa Hawkeyes (nailed it)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (-3)
Michigan Wolverines (+5)
Purdue Boilermakers (-3)
Oregon Ducks (+2)
Wisconsin Badgers (nailed it)
Penn State Nittany Lions (-3)
Washington Huskies (+4)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-1)
Northwestern Wildcats (-1)
Pretty impressed with myself that I got five teams exactly right, but there were also some teams I got exactly wrong. The Huskies and Ducks both acclimated to the Big Ten far more quickly than I thought and finished above where I thought.
I learned not to underestimate Brenda Frese or Kim Barnes Arico again, as the Terps earned another top-four Big Ten finish with an expertly re-worked roster through the transfer portal and the Wolverines rode an immensely talented freshman class to a top-six finish. Wonderful coaching jobs by two of the best in the business.
While I missed badly on Nebraska’s spot in the Big Ten, I’m going to give myself a little grace there since reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Year Natalie Potts was lost for the season before conference play even started. Penn State and Purdue both had frustrating, disappointing seasons which I didn’t think would happen.
On to the individual awards!
Predicted Big Ten Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Halfway Big Ten Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
BBK Big Ten Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Much like when Caitlin Clark ruled the roost in the Big Ten, I desperately wanted to pick someone other than Watkins to win this award but…she was the best player in the conference and there aren’t really any arguments to the contrary.
Watkins led the Big Ten PRPG!, PER per minute, win shares, off. win shares, def. win shares and points per game while finishing second in box plus/minus and PER. UCLA’s Lauren Betts was a close second in this race and Watkins’ teammate Kiki Iriafen was barely talked about, despite an excellent season, due to how well Watkins and Betts played.
Predicted First Team All-Big Ten:
Kendall Bostic, Illinois
Lucy Olsen, Iowa
Shyanne Sellers, Maryland
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Mara Braun, Minnesota
Cotie McMahon, Ohio State
Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Halfway First Team All-Big Ten:
Kendall Bostic, Illinois
Kaylene Smikle, Maryland
Olivia Olson, Michigan
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Kiki Rice, UCLA
Sayvia Sellers, Washington
Serah Williams, Wisconsin
BBK First Team All-Big Ten:
Kendall Bostic, Illinois
Lucy Olsen, Iowa
Kaylene Smikle, Maryland
Destiny Adams, Rutgers
Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Kiki Rice, UCLA
Elle Ladine, Washington
Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Players in bold made preseason, midseason, and postseason teams
BBK Second Team All-Big Ten:
Shyanne Sellers, Maryland
Olivia Olson, Michigan
Syla Swords, Michigan
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Grace VanSlooten, Michigan State
Alexis Markowski, Nebraska
Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State
Cotie McMahon, Ohio State
Gracie Merkle, Penn State
Sayvia Sellers, Washington
Leaving Illinois guard tandem Adalia McKenzie and Genesis Bryant off of the Second Team was an excruciating choice, but FWIW I’d have them as the top-two Honorable Mention selections for this year.
It is time for me to speak my truth: you people (derogatory) do not respect Destiny Adams enough! She has been one of the best players in the conference for the past two seasons and just because she is on a dreadful (NOT her fault) Rutgers squad you think you can brush her aside for end of season awards.
Well I’ve had enough!
Here are some of her ranks, nationally, in major categories:
17.6 ppg; 74th
9.6 rpg; 38th
2.5 spg; 41st
33.3% usage; 28th
Here are some of her ranks, in the Big Ten, in those same major categories:
18.2 ppg; 5th (122nd in points per possession, 131st eFG%)
9.4 rpg; 2nd (26th in rebound percentage)
3.0 spg; 1st (4th in steal percentage)
34.6% usage; 1st
she also averaged the second most field goal attempts per game and third most free throw attempts while also being 59th in assists per game (48th assist percentage) and 16th in blocks per game (33rd block percentage)
Now, I prize efficiency as much as the next dipshit who writes about basketball on the internet but you know what else is important sometimes? Being a God Damned Hooper and that’s exactly what Destiny Adams is.
This Rutgers team stunk out loud this year. They lost Antonia Bates (five starts in five games; 23.7 minutes per game) and Awa Sidibe (13 starts/16 games; 29.5 mpg) to injuries and star freshman Kiyomi McMiller (19 starts/21 games; 30.3 mpg, 18.7 ppg) to off-court shenanigans for various lengths of time this season and Adams STILL balled out.
She was routinely a one-woman show, which the other team obviously knew, and put up numbers regardless. The Haters and Losers, of which there are many, can cram it. Destiny Adams kicks ass and is deserving of a First Team All-Big Ten nod.
Also, uh, shoutout to Washington’s Elle Ladine, Michigan’s freshman class, and PSU’s Gracie Merkle for having great years too.
Predicted Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year: Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Halfway Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
BBK Defensive Player of the Year: JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Predicted Big Ten All-Defensive Team:
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Taylor Thierry, Ohio State
Elisa Mevius, Oregon
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Dalayah Daniels, Washington
Serah Williams, Wisconsin
Halfway Big Ten All-Defensive Team:
Julia Ayrault, Michigan State
Taylor Thierry, Ohio State
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Rayah Marshall, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Also considered: Kendall Bostic (Illinois), Angela Dugalic (UCLA), Jocelyn Tate (Michigan State), Destiny Adams (Rutgers), Kennedy Smith (Southern Cal), Serah Williams (Wisconsin)
BBK Big Ten All-Defensive Team
Taylor Thierry, Ohio State
Rayah Marshall, Southern Cal
JuJu Watkins, Southern Cal
Lauren Betts, UCLA
Angela Dugalić, UCLA
Also considered: Kendall Bostic (Illinois), Brooke Q. Daniels (Michigan), Julia Ayrault (Michigan State), Nyla Hampton (Michigan State), Jocelyn Tate (Michigan State), Destiny Adams (Rutgers), Kennedy Smith (Southern Cal), Kiki Iriafen (Southern Cal), Serah Williams (Wisconsin)
This was another difficult category in which to make decisions. Southern Cal and UCLA were far and away the two best defensive teams in the conference, with the margin between UCLA (second best in def. rating) and Ohio State (third best) being basically the same as the margin between OSU and Illinois (10th best).
If you picked all Bruins and Trojans for this team it would be tough to argue against it, but I think that Taylor Thierry provided a big defensive boost for the Buckeyes this year and deserves a spot on this team. DPOY JuJu Watkins was a menace all over the court, stealing passes, blocking shots, and generally causing opposing guards to lose sleep at night when thinking of her.
Serah Williams didn’t have a “bad” defensive season by any means this year, but Wisconsin’s overall defense took a large step back and some of that falls on the shoulders of the best defensive player on the team. Her advanced defensive metrics were down from last year and, while her steal rate went up slightly (0.5%), her block rate went way down (2.7%) and her defensive rebounding numbers stayed the same (+0.2%).
Predicted Big Ten Coach of the Year: Amy Williams, Nebraska
Halfway Big Ten Coach of the Year: ummm, I don’t know
BBK Big Ten Coach of the Year: Shauna Green, Illinois
The job Shauna Green did with the Illini this year is outstanding. She lost three players to season-ending injuries and these were important players! Check it:
Makira Cook: 5th year senior point guard who led the team in scoring, assists, and minutes played in 2023-2024
Gretchen Dolan: sophomore guard that was primed to be a key piece off the bench after appearing in 31 games as a freshman and averaging 4.8 ppg
Lety Vasconcelos: 6-foot-7 transfer from Baylor who was going to provide depth for Kendall Bostic in the frontcourt
Cook and Dolan only played in eight games and Vasconcelos didn’t play at all after suffering a torn ACL during preseason workouts. Illinois was running a skeleton crew for the entire Big Ten season and, despite losing their last three games, still finished fifth (11-7 record) in the conference! This was a masterful coaching display by Green and it hopefully won’t be ignored on a national level…although I have my doubts.
I would also like to shoutout Maryland’s Brenda Frese, Michigan’s Kim Barnes Arico, Michigan State’s Robyn Fralick, and Oregon’s Kelly Graves for their seasons too.
Predicted Top Transfer: Lucy Olsen, Iowa
Halfway Top Transfer: Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal; Kaylene Smikle, Maryland
BBK Top Transfer: Kiki Iriafen, Southern Cal
Olsen and Smikle both produced at a high level for their teams, but Iriafen was clearly the best incoming transfer by the end of the season. She averaged 18.1 ppg (50.7% FG), 8.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.0 spg, and 0.7 bpg while finishing sixth in the Big Ten in PER and third in win shares. An excellent player on an excellent team…not much more to say than that!
Predicted Big Ten Freshman of the Year: Syla Swords, Michigan
Halfway Big Ten Freshman of the Year: Olivia Olson, Michigan
BBK Big Ten Freshman of the Year: Olivia Olson, Michigan
In another wildly close race, I’ve got Olson edging out her teammate Swords and Ohio State’s Jaloni Cambridge as the Big Ten’s top freshman this season.
Olson played the second most minutes of any freshman in the Big Ten (behind Swords and ahead of Mila Holloway, also of Michigan), had the highest PRPG! rating on Torvik’s site, the third best box plus/minus, the fourth best offensive rating on the fourth highest usage (efficiency queen!), tied for second in ppg, second in rpg, tied for fourth in spg, and had the fourth best turnover rate.
The Wolverines are set up to challenge for the conference title sooner rather than later with this trio of freshmen.
Predicted Big Ten All-Freshman Team:
Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State
Syla Swords, Michigan
Britt Prince, Nebraska
Kiyomi McMiller, Rutgers
Devin Coppinger, Washington
Halfway Big Ten All-Freshman Team:
Olivia Olson, Michigan
Syla Swords, Michigan
Tori McKinney, Minnesota
Britt Prince, Nebraska
Kiyomi McMiller, Rutgers
Also considered: Jaloni Cambridge (Ohio State), Avery Howell (Southern Cal), Kennedy Smith (Southern Cal), Kayleigh Heckel (Southern Cal), Elina Aarnisalo (UCLA)
BBK Big Ten All-Freshman Team:
Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State
Olivia Olson, Michigan
Syla Swords, Michigan
Tori McKinney, Minnesota
Britt Prince, Nebraska
Also considered: Mila Holloway (Michigan), Avery Howell (Southern Cal), Kennedy Smith (Southern Cal), Kayleigh Heckel (Southern Cal), Elina Aarnisalo (UCLA)
Not considered due to quitting on her team: Kiyomi McMiller (Rutgers)
This was an extremely impressive freshman class and there are a handful of other first year players that I can see making an All-Big Ten team later in their career but, for now, shout-out to Michigan and Southern Cal for their excellent 2024 classes.
Terrific stuff. Appreciate you being frank with your analysis. Thanks for the coverage. Go Terps!